Tag Archives: Congress

The State of Dis Union

I’ve spent the last few days carefully analyzing comments and reactions to the SOTU by the POTUS, including remarks, spin, body language, fashion choices and secret masonic signs flashed by FLOTUS, SCOTUS, the VP, the GOP, the DNC, NPR APBs, ASAP polling, pundit OMG-ing and many other acronyms. I’ve come to two conclusions: (1) the media needs to settle its kettle and end the pre-pubescent fascination with abbreviated text talk. WTF? It’s BS that leaves the grownups PO’d. (2) Our union is in a state.

Exactly what sort of state is a subject of some disagreement. Judging by last Tuesday’s speech Donald Trump clearly sees us in a state of historic political felicity and achievement, we’re a rejuvenated republic wisely led by a competent and beneficent government. All that positivism and pep made for a nice bookend to his inaugural address. Remember it was only a year ago he was warning us of “American carnage,” social havoc and misery that he, and he alone, could save us from. Well, problem solved, apparently. Twelve months in and we’ve gone from a society one step away from a sphincter-clenching episode of The Walking Dead to a happy collective growing fat on 401(k) dividends and hiring itinerant welders with our tax returns.

Well, that’s nice to know. Sure, the news came in a bit of a self-congratulatory swag fest.  The administration’s achievements are tremendous, historical, yuge, bigly, unpresidented, etc etc. But, if the whole “mothers and children trapped in poverty,“crime and gangs and drugs,“factories shuttered and leaving our shores” problems are now under control, as the president hinted, it’s hard to begrudge the guy a victory lap.

According to Trump, what’s needed to get the rest of the big to-do list done—infrastructure, immigration, healthcare—is a big dose of bipartisan, git-‘er-done cooperation. And no worries there, because the president is on it. He generously called on all the biased, incompetent, very unfair and TOTALLY DISHONEST losers on the other side of the isle to come together and agree to do what he wants.

Putting out the call for unity and togetherness was no doubt intended to be inspiring stuff.  I’m guessing, though, that it’ll be a tough slog fusing together a democratic glee club out of “Jeff Flake-ly”, “really sad” Lindsey Graham, that “dummy” John McCain, “Pocahaontas” Elizabeth Warren, “Cryin’ Chuck” Schumer, “dumb” politicians generally, and “crooked” Democrats in particular.* Still, the president should be given credit for magnanimously offering room on his bandwagon for all the crybabies who have felt the rough edge of his twitter feed. I’m guessing the shithole country-of-origin crowd are still off the invite list, as is the FBI, the EPA, most of the state department, all us pointy-headed academic types, liberals of all species, anyone from CNN, the New York Times, or any other news organization not called Fox, plus the FBI, short sighted generals, and, well, a long list of others currently considered infra dig. Norwegians are good though, so focus on that generous hand extended to all the Hansens and Johansens yearning to paddle up the fake news fjord.

President Trump’s self-portrait of his administration was basically a Bob Ross mash-up of Lincoln’s wisdom, Washington’s dignity, FDR’s brilliance, Churchill’s defiance, but better than all these because it gets Kim Kardashian ratings (huge!). That’s a good state to be in, so he must be well pleased with where we’re at. Some in the audience, though, were clearly not getting that picture. Seats in the House chamber seemed to be exerting some sort of massive gravitational pull on Democratic butt cheeks. That’s a big contrast with Republicans, who spent an hour-and-a-half doing jack-in-the-box applause burpees, a jump-up-and-clap marathon synchronized to insure the president wouldn’t have to talk longer than an average tweet. It looked like a real cardio and glute workout. “LYIN’ TED” Cruz was sucking wind toward the end, but the “ineffective” “disloyal” Paul Ryan didn’t even break a sweat. Must be all that P90X-ing he does.

Throughout all this vigorous GOP huzzah-ing Democrats stubbornly remained in a state of amoebic high dudgeon. Except for “wacko” “very sad!” Bernie Sanders. He sat in his usual state of high curmudgeon. Anyway, the Dems looked like exactly what they are—impotent onlookers to a political state that displeases them mightily. To get help them get back on track they drafted a young, good looking Kennedy — there always seems to be an endless supply of them — to deliver their party’s official response. The basic precis of that was, “character counts.” It obviously doesn’t, of course. Right after the speech, a porn star was on Jimmy Kimmel Live basically fessing up to bonking the prez and taking hush money to keep it all under the sheets.  Honestly, you’d think a Kennedy, of all people, would know what character counts for in politics.

Anyway, for all the huffing and puffing triggered by this extended piece of political theater, the president’s state of the union revealed nothing that we did not already know about, well, the state of union. Trump and his backers are still in a state of schadenfreude bliss, and everyone else is still in a state of blistering pique and vexation. Trump’s words and “weak on crime” Nancy Pelosi’s sour lemon phiz didn’t change any of that a lick. It just clarified the agreement on our disunion, the unanimity of our dedication to political partition. And that’s a terrible state to be in.

*Everything in quotes in this post is an actual public insult delivered by the president about the person in question. To see a comprehensive accounting of who he’s insulted and how click here. It’s a long list.

It’s Not The Economy. Maybe It’s The Stupid.

Republican lawmakers are currently defying one of the most widely accepted laws of political thermodynamics: for every economic motion there is a parallel and sympathetic political reaction. Or, as the Cajun Clinton whisperer James Carville put it, “it’s the economy, stupid.”

Okay, so it’s not exactly a law. But what’s good for the economy is good for whatever crew is running the government–especially the White House division–has proven a pretty good rule of thumb. As has its reciprocal. If the Dow Jones skitters down a gopher hole it’s a good bet the president’s approval rating is also going subterranean. Just ask Bush 43. Or Bush 41.

Which is why the GOP currently seems to be defying political gravity. By just about any measure the economy is rocking. The stock market sizzles, unemployment is 4 percent, GDP growth is a robust 3.2 percent, and a tight labor market has wages on the rise, which is good news for the lunch pail sectors that repeatedly got the shaft while the one percenters expanded their goldmines. When the git-yer-jollies-on money machine cranks up pols instinctively know there’s credit to be claimed in them thar dividends. So given all the economic positives, the piggy backers, windbags and horn blowers in charge should be huffing through a victory lap, throwing humblebrags to the voters, and sailing toward comfortable reelections.

Yet our GOP overlords seem to be reaping little of the political reward that normally accrues to lawmakers lucky enough to rule at the hilly end of the business cycle. Indeed, as measured by popular approval ratings, they are getting slammed. Forget rodent holes. Republican poll ratings are so low they have to look up to see gopher butt. Donald Trump’s approval ratings are stuck in the 30s, which is historically terrible, but still nearly double that of Republicans and their leaders in Congress (Mitch McConnell’s public approval is roughly the same as the tatometer rating for Showgirls which is, well, not good). Dozens of Republican members of Congress aren’t even waiting for the voters to render a verdict on their record of governance. So many have announced retirement there’s been a run on gold watches. What in the name of Milton Friedman is going on?

It’s a multi-variate world and there’s more than one reason why the economy is going up while the GOP’s popularity sinks lower than gum stuck to a submariner’s shoe. Certainly the, um, character issues of the president have something to do with it. There are many ways to ding your party’s reputation, and certainly doing stuff like referring to vast swaths of the planet as “shitholes” and paying hush money to porn stars is right up there. Especially if you already have a permanent case of the tweet trots and spent the past a year cementing a reputation as a chaos artist. True believers please feel free to insert here the obligatory all-purpose, all-caps snappy comebacks here. FAKE NEWS!!! WHAT ABOUT HER EMAILS!! Persuasive stuff, as always.

Now that’s out of the way, let me say I don’t think it’s just Trump’s coarse and immature shenanigans that has the Republicans in trouble (though it sure hasn’t helped). A big part of the problem is that Republicans continue to govern as if they swept into office on the back of a clear mandate, and they weren’t. According to the Federal Election Commission,  there were roughly 180 million votes cast for Democratic candidates in 2016 (this is the combined total for president, Senate and House), and about 168 million cast for Republican candidates.* In other words, as a whole the American electorate had a slight, but clear, preference for the Democratic Party. And it got a wholly Republican government.

There’s nothing wrong or suspicious or nefarious about this. The whole federal electoral system is based on state and sub-state constituencies, there is no nationally elected office (the president is elected by the states through the Electoral College, not the people), and parts of it are wildly malapportioned (the United States Senate). So the way the math works out, it’s not exactly a shocker that one party can be elected to control government even though, overall, it has less support among voters than the party consigned to the minority. The GOP won fair-sies square-sies and those still whining to the contrary just don’t understand the system.

Yet winning isn’t enough to make a go of governing. I’ve made this basic point before, but it bears repeating: the weird situation of a party controlling a democratic government when it was opposed by most voters at the polls means governing style really matters. Writing laws in secret (and employing industry hacks as ghostwriters), bending norms and rules to avoid bipartisan engagement (or even debate) might work if a sizeable majority is cheering you on. The problem for the GOP is they have no such constituency. And they’re unlikely to get one if they keep doing what they’re doing. Indeed, a plurality of the electorate (perhaps even a majority) already seems to view them less as agents for the American people, but as a group that sold its soul–not to mention its dignity–for power. That creates a big legitimacy problem.

Specifically, it translates into a lack of public approval, economy be damned. An ill-advised approach to process, treating indefensible proclamations from the party chief with situational amnesia, vacuous appeals to alt-facts, etc., etc., all this starts to catch up. Smart conservatives–and there’s still plenty around–have been shouting about this for a while (David Brooks, Jeff Flake, Charlie Sykes, even Ben Shapiro). It’s just that their own side isn’t listening.  And they should, because at some point it’s not the economy, stupid, that’s the issue. Sometimes it’s just the stupid.

*There were also about 18 million votes cast for non-major party candidates.